Episode 4: The Ex Factor

by aytoanalyzer

Oh no they didn’t! MTV totally bussed in all the guys’ exes for a challenge in which the girls had to match each boy with the dastardly deed he done did. This was not particularly conducive to love brewing, but it sure was entertaining…and it shed some positive light on a few of the guys, like Dillan, whose ex tearfully confessed that she is still in love with him because he is so super great.

Anyway Jess, that amazing judge of both body parts and character, finishes in the top 3 and takes now stud-status Dillan on her date. They get along so famously that the others vote them into the Truth Booth.

NO MATCH.

Jessica is sort of bummed, while Coleysia literally dances with joy, and so do we, because now Jessica joins the “only 8 possible matches” club. Meanwhile, Amber has decided she is over Ethan (these people suck at dating, remember?) and proceeds to slither all over Adam, who slithers back.

Craziness ensues at the matching ceremony as the girls start picking whomever the fuck they want, breaking up established couples and letting the randomness trickle down to the point of the last few couples having barely ever spoken (Joey & Jacy, I’m looking at you). The couples are:

Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 10.37.36 PM

Floodlights reveal that 2 of these matches are correct. But wait, we also know that 2 are incorrect – thanks MTV! Since Ethan & Amber are a match, that rules out Ethan & Kayla and Adam & Amber, and our couples chart looks like this:

Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 10.39.52 PM

Since there are only 8 possible matches left in the list, and 2 of them are correct according to the almighty floodlights, each of the remaining couples has a 25% chance of being a match. We’ll add them to our “maybes”, and add Dillan & Jessica to our “nos”, and our chart looks like this:

Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 10.43.56 PM

And now we can start upping our odds on some of the prior couplings, especially the few that have repeated (in bold here):

Screen Shot 2014-02-18 at 11.02.00 PM

Based on the statistical evidence at hand, plus my extensive expertise as a longtime obsessive viewer of reality television, I’m going to go ahead and call a match:

Dillan + Coleysia

Stats also suggest that Adam + Brittany is a strong possibility, but I’m not buying it, watching their dynamic. Ryan + Kayla is also a contender, but given that 2 of the remaining Episode 1 couples are correct,  and none of the others seem that feasible, I’m not going to rule out Wes + Kayla just yet.

And with some statistical evidence and a lot of camera time, I’m going to go ahead and throw my support behind one more match: John + Jacy.

So based on this analysis plus what we’ve seen on the show, here are my predictions on correct couples by episode:

Episode 1 (2 couples): Dillan + Coleysia, Wes + Kayla

Episode 2 (4 couples): Ethan + Amber, John + Jacy, Adam + Shanley (hey, they’re both a good time), and…not sure on the fourth.

Episode 3 (2 couples): Ethan + Amber, Dillan + Coleysia

Episode 4 (2 couples): Dillan + Coleysia, not sure (I’d say Scali + Paige, but I had to rule them out in favor of Dillan + Coleysia in Episode 3, since only one couple besides Ethan + Amber could be correct). I’ll go out on a limb here and say Dre + Simone. Seems feasible.