Episode 5: Getting Warmer

by aytoanalyzer

In this episode, Ashleigh and Dre have sex (excuse me, “hook up”) in broad daylight, Amber is inexplicably caught in a love triangle between Ethan and Adam (could they BE any more different?), and Dillan and Coleysia reveal that they are both born again virgins. Oh, and the entire cast finally wises up enough to let some couples who might actually have a chance at being matches win the repelling challenge, while the producers take pity on these dumbasses and let them send TWO couples to the Truth Booth this week.

First in the booth? Ashleigh and Dre, of course.

NO MATCH.

We knew that seemed too easy! Ashleigh is despondent. She just boned this guy in the afternoon, you guys, and we know that means it’s serious.

Next are (thank God) Dillan and Coleysia.

PERFECT MATCH!!!!

The crowd goes wild. And so do we! Because a) we sort of already knew that and b) now we can do some serious damage to our spreadsheet by crossing out all of Dillan’s other possible matches, and all of Coleysia”s as well. But wait, there’s more! Since we know that only 2 of the matches were correct at the end of episode 3, and Ethan + Amber and Dillan + Coleysia were among those couples, we now see that every other match made that night was wrong:

This rules out 8 more couples, including some of our “likely” couples like Ryan + Kayla, Adam + Brittany, and Scali + Paige. Major!

So now our chart looks like this…

…with all of the remaining eligible players down to either 6 or 7 possible matches each.

At the end of the episode, the group pairs off and gets 5 matches correct – a new record! Since we already know 2 of the five for sure, that leaves us with 3 of 8 remaining couples correct, and assigns a 38% probability to those matchups (with increased probabilities to the bolded couples due to previous ceremony matches):

This gets interesting, because four of these couples are favorites to be matches, including Wes + Kayla, Chris T + Paige, Adam + Shanley, and John + Jacy…but only 3 of them can be correct.

But OMG, what’s this? MTV is dropping another truth bomb on us, the obsessed viewership. Last week they gave us an outline of two silhouettes of people and told us they were a match. This week, they give us this .gif and tell us that the picture that matches those two silhouettes is a match.

Without going into detail about how I figured this out (cough, cough), it’s Joey and Brittany! And thanks, MTV, for almost giving me a seizure there.

Now we have our players down to 5 or 6 possible matches each, like so:

But what’s more interesting is our match analysis from all of the previous ceremonies:

We can see now that we have 2 groups of couples that are up to a 50% chance of being right, and 2 groups in which only 1 of 4 couples is correct. This sets up a logic puzzle: for instance, is Wes + Kayla is the right match from Episode 1, and Adam + Shanley and John + Jacy join them as the 2 correct matches left from Episode 2, that means that we’d have identified our remaining 3 matches in Episode 5, and we’d have to rule out popular fan matches like Chris T + Page and Scali + Simone. Very interesting indeed.