Episode 7: On the Money

It’s too bad I’m not the one competing for a million bucks here, because I’ve got this bitch SOLVED!

Let me back up, though.

In tonight’s episode, nothing really amazing happened, except that Kayla started hitting herself (OMG MTV WTF). Ryan & Kayla got voted into the Truth Booth, which was a giant yawn for us because we have known for weeks that they can’t be a match.

Ceremony time and the matches were as follows:

We know that 3 of these are definitely correct, and 2 (John + Brittany and Joey + Jessica) are definitely wrong, because Joey + Brittany are a confirmed match via MTV hintage. That means that if my predictions after the last episode are correct, the group will get 7 matches correct this time.

And guess what? THEY GOT 7 CORRECT!

This basically confirms that I’m a genius and that my predictions are right. Boo-yah, or some such. But to go back to logical mathiness, since we know 3 of the 7, that means there are 4 correct matches left in the group, with only 5 possible matches to choose from. In other words, tonight’s 5 unsolved matches have an 80% chance of being correct. So our logic puzzle now looks like this:

It’s now overwhelmingly likely that Wes + Kayla, Adam + Shanley, and Dre + Simone are matches. Of the two possible matches left, 1 is correct, and I’m still sticking with Scali + Jacy.

Final lineup predictions, and I’d bet money on it at this point:

Boom! Where’s my money, MTV?

(and seriously, if MBA Wes does not bust out some kind of spreadsheet to try to figure this out in the next episode, I’m going to cry. Where did you go to school, dude? Or is MTV just not showing us that you’re, you know, competent?)

Episode 6….Continued

Blah blah drama, only interesting development in the second part of this episode is that Jacy & Scali have a developing attraction.

We finally get to see the matchup ceremony, which yields the following pairs:

5 lights go on, and obviously we know who 3 of those lights are for (and also 2 couples who they definitely aren’t for), so that leaves us 5 couples of which 2 are correct: Ryan & Jessica (ooh!), Wes & Kayla (duh), Adam & Ashley (nah), John & Jacy, and Dre & Shanley. Our 6 episode “logic puzzle” looks like this:

So since only 1 pair can be right out of the Episode 1, 2, and 3 matchups, and only 2 pair can be right out of episodes 5 and 6, I am feeling pretty comfortable predicting the entire lineup now.

We know 4 matches for sure:

Dillan + Coleysia, Chris T + Paige, Ethan + Amber and Joey + Brittany.

Based on this grid and what we’ve seen from the show, I’m going to go ahead and call the remaining 6 matches:

Wes + Kayla (the other 2 episode 1 possibilities make no sense), Adam + Shanley (ditto for episode 2), Dre + Simone (ditto for episode 4). Episode 5 only has 2 correct pairings left, and we’re already going with W+K and A+S, so that means John+Jacy as a pair are out, as are the remaining 2 episode 5 pairings. W+K transfers to episode 6 as one of the 2 correct pair, and we’ve already ruled out J+J, so of the three left the most likely pairing is Ryan + Jessica. That means Scali + Jacy could indeed be a match, as was strongly hinted at in this episode.

So we have Wes + Kayla, Adam + Shanley, Dre + Simone, Ryan + Jessica, and Scali + Jacy as solid predictions. The only thing is, that would mean John + Ashleigh are a match. We haven’t seen anything to suggest that, but we haven’t seen anything to rule it out, either. Time will tell.